Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.164840 1.322216 1.488752 1.677671 1.885583 2.106971 2.360076
2025-02-02 0.939425 1.154279 1.395923 1.686153 2.023508 2.401488 2.855139
2025-02-09 0.757775 1.006096 1.302256 1.677533 2.136109 2.673811 3.347174
2025-02-16 0.616814 0.885023 1.223957 1.676135 2.255242 2.963256 3.884534
2025-02-23 0.485534 0.755668 1.118018 1.627132 2.309947 3.179037 4.351645
2025-03-02 0.371251 0.629820 0.998907 1.545504 2.312957 3.328796 4.747766
2025-03-09 0.301031 0.554818 0.938990 1.536186 2.410032 3.607483 5.331420
2025-03-16 0.239672 0.481685 0.870801 1.505787 2.473360 3.844309 5.875518
2025-03-23 0.204936 0.445673 0.854193 1.549777 2.647189 4.246622 6.673764
2025-03-30 0.160139 0.382050 0.782792 1.498594 2.672173 4.436015 7.182478
2025-04-06 0.129095 0.337073 0.735648 1.480101 2.744375 4.697925 7.810365
2025-04-13 0.102290 0.293797 0.684093 1.446771 2.788072 4.917651 8.386735
2025-04-20 0.086539 0.271727 0.671023 1.483525 2.957123 5.352576 9.330030
2025-04-27 0.072503 0.249753 0.654512 1.512073 3.115104 5.781228 10.290085
2025-05-04 0.059303 0.225687 0.629300 1.520763 3.239004 6.162947 11.198695
2025-05-11 0.048645 0.204857 0.607235 1.532661 3.369420 6.563472 12.159107
2025-05-18 0.037464 0.177792 0.565099 1.497326 3.408562 6.811727 12.884952
2025-05-25 0.027288 0.148798 0.511354 1.428826 3.376905 6.934372 13.408191
2025-06-01 0.021699 0.133354 0.488921 1.426222 3.473122 7.286567 14.333456
2025-06-08 0.016612 0.116785 0.459289 1.402387 3.523671 7.558702 15.133908
2025-06-15 0.014204 0.110713 0.458661 1.447795 3.720524 8.108309 16.438706
2025-06-22 0.010380 0.094694 0.423484 1.402355 3.720988 8.292443 17.109441
2025-06-29 0.007925 0.083820 0.401591 1.387170 3.784452 8.597420 18.006367